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September 8, 2013

Wikinews interviews Scott Lucas, Eyal Zisser, Majid Rafizadeh about risks of US military intervention in Syria

Wikinews interviews Scott Lucas, Eyal Zisser, Majid Rafizadeh about risks of US military intervention in Syria

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Sunday, September 8, 2013

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File:Prof. Scott Lucas 1.jpg

File photo of Prof. Scott Lucas.
Image: Scott Lucas.
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The United States President Barack Obama announced last Saturday he was seeking Congressional authorisation for military intervention in Syria.

Looking for more-qualified input, Wikinews interviewed: professor Scott Lucas, an expert in American Studies, from the UK’s University of Birmingham; the President of the International American Council on the Middle East, Majid Rafizadeh; and, professor Eyal Zisser, a Syrian expert, from Tel Aviv University.

Discussing the risks involved with US military intervention in Syria, Wikinews posed a range of questions to these experts on the region’s political climate.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWikinewsWikinews waves Right.png Is it possible for the US to take military action to deter further use of chemical weapons without getting dragged into the civil war?

  • Prof. Scott Lucas: The US is already involved in the civil war — the question is to what extent.
The US has given political support to the opposition and insurgency since late 2011, and from summer 2012, it has pursued covert support to the opposition fighters.
However, the Obama Administration has been hesitant about overt support for insurgents throughout the conflict, and that has affected co-ordination of covert efforts. In June, the Administration finally said it would provide overt military assistance, but then pulled back and failed to deliver any public aid.
Had it not been for the August, 21 chemical weapons attack, that position would have persisted.
  • Majid Rafizadeh: It depends on the scope of the military operation. If United States conducts limited military operation, as the adminstration argues, and if US only targets some of the Syrian government’s military installments, it is less likely that United States will be drawn into the Syria’s civil war. It would be a political suicide for Syria, Iran or Hezbollah to respond.
On the other hand, if Assad observes that the balance of power is tilting against him inside the country, he might use chemical weapons in the future despite US limited strikes.
  • Prof. Eyal Zisser: Yes, it[sic] the attack is limited. And If the Americans only use missiles. They can cause severe damage, but leave Assad in his palace, and not being dragged into the civil war.

The United States President Barack Obama with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year.
Image: Pete Souza.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Will military intervention from the US affect long term relations between the United States and Russia?

  • SL: Of course, significant military intervention by Washington will affect relations between the US and Russia, but the long-term effect cannot be predicted.
It is dependent on Russia’s reaction — so far, Moscow has been able to pressure the US into caution, but a decision for intervention by the US might call Russia’s bluff, so to speak, and force some caution by the Russians. Already, Moscow has said it will not join a fight against any US military action.
And, of course, the long-term relationship is dependent on the political and military success of any US intervention.
  • MR: Military intervention, in the classic sense of putting troops on the ground, will definitely affect US-Russian long term political relationships. It might heighten the diplomatic tensions. However, the limited military operation is less likely [to] change US-Russian long term economic, geopolitical, and political relationships.
  • EZ: No. They need each other in many other places of the world. Russia knows that the US is a super power and will not be interested in a real conflict with Washington.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png The British Parliament voted against military intervention in Syria, do you think this has affected their relations with the United States?

  • SL: No — had the Obama Administration been united and decisive for intervention, there might have been some effect. But the Obama Administration’s divisions mean its first priority is getting some coherence in Washington, rather than blaming London.
  • MR: I don’t think so. I believe that [the] UK has been [the] staunchest ally of the United States for decades. One instance of opposing parliamentary vote will not have impact on US-UK relations.
  • EZ: Maybe. But Britain is not an important power any more, so the affect will be only in the symbolic field.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia could back Syrian intervention if there was conclusive proof of regime guilt. What sort of evidence would be needed and can this level of assurance be given?

  • SL: This is not a scientific question — we already have extensive evidence establishing the near-certainty of major regime attacks with chemical weapons on 7 towns on August 21.
Putin’s statement was a political move: it ostensibly re-confirmed the Russian opposition to US intervention while giving Moscow a way to step back if the UN inspectors return a damning report.
  • MR: It is difficult, if not impossible, to provide Moscow with the evidence that they are looking for. In order to provide that specific information several criterions should be met. First of all, the soil of the location where the alleged chemical weapons are used, should immediately be examined after the incident. The Syrian government has not allowed immediate access to these places and usually reports come out days after. Second, and more fundamentally, a concrete and observable evidence is needed for Russia showing that Assad’s government has used it as opposed to the rebels.
  • EZ: No the Russians are not after the truth but after their interests even if Assad admits that he used such weapon the Russians will be against any intervention.

Bombed out vehicles in Aleppo during the Syrian civil war.
Image: Voice of America.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Would US military intervention on Syria be a violation of International law?

  • SL: This is a grey area, especially as there will not be an endorsement by the United Nations Security Council. Supporters of the action say it can be justified under the recent doctrine of humanitarian intervention, but that is more a political rather than legal judgement.
  • MR: Legally speaking, it is [in] violation of [the] United Nations Charter. According to [the] UN Charter, use of force is permitted only in case of self-defense or UNSC’s [United Nations Security Council] approval. Neither of these two cases apply for US use of military force against Syria. However, this does not mean that our current international law is devoid of any shortcomings. The International system has some shortcomings because of the structure of the UNSC, where one member can veto a resolution and block actions.
  • EZ: Technically — yes because they did not get an approval from the UN.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Does the United States seem to be wanting to engage in regime change in Syria as opposed to preventing further chemical attacks?

  • SL: No, the Obama Administration has been uncertain about — and many of its members opposed to — regime change, and that is still the situation. The military, in particular, is opposed to significant, long-term intervention because of its concerns over a fragmented, diverse opposition and what happens if Assad falls.
  • MR: If there was an efficient alternative to Assad, US would have seen the regime change to its political benefits and interests. However, United States does not seem to have articulated any precise agenda towards Syria yet. The policy is more ” Wait and See” policy; observing and reacting as things unfold in Syria and the region.
  • EZ: No Obama does not want it, he finds himself being dragged into a war he has no interest in.
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Wikinews interviews Dr. Robert Kelly and Dr. Jim Gill regarding joint scientific venture in North Korea

Wikinews interviews Dr. Robert Kelly and Dr. Jim Gill regarding joint scientific venture in North Korea

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Sunday, September 8, 2013

File:Robert Kelly File Photo.JPG

File photo of Dr. Robert Kelly.
Image: Robert Kelly.
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A group of volcanologists from the UK and USA have traveled to North Korea to assist them with conducting scientific investigations and installing equipment near the volcano Mount Paektu.

Wikinews interviewed Dr. Robert Kelly of Pusan National University (PNU) in South Korea, who specialises in security and diplomacy and Dr. Jim Gill from the University of California who has visited the Chinese side of Mount Paektu.

Dr. Robert Kelly

Wikinews waves Left.pngWikinewsWikinews waves Right.png Given that the UK, USA have strained political relations with North Korea, what is the purpose of these scientists working together?

Dr. Robert Kelly: Mt Paektu erupted massively about 1100 years ago and has been dormant since. Recently there has been seismic activity, and should it explode again, it could be gigantic — and devastating. It is everyone’s interest in East Asia to know about such a possibility, so this kind of cooperation can be above politics. But it is also always good to engage North Korea to try to draw them out. Such engagement can occur in nonpolitical, technical areas like this most easily.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Does North Korea understand that it needs the specialism of British and American scientists to plan for when the volcano erupts?

RK: It does. North Korea does actually engage in various track II programming, including student and administrative exchanges. This is not well-known due to the nuclear issue however. The North Korean government is aware of its technological backwardness, and they often dangle concessions to other states in exchange for tech transfers like this.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png The North Korea underground nuclear test site is very close to the volcano, do you think this affected North–South Korean relations?

RK: Not very much. It does upset South Koreans somewhat, because Mt. Paektu is actually [a] national landmark. It is the mythological birthplace of the Korean people. And there is some scientific concern that major seismic activity could impact nuclear facilities.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Do you think that the field work being carried out by the scientists, being near a militarised border is very difficult?

RK: No, because it is in the interest of all local parties — NK, Chinese, even Russian — that Mt. Paektu is properly monitored. Indeed, I could imagine that, behind the scenes, the Chinese pushed North Korea toward this cooperation, as this is somewhat unusual for NK.

A file photo of Mount Paektu.
Image: Bdpmax.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png May the North Koreans be wary and suspicious of their British and American counterparts, given the secretiveness of the state?

RK: Absolutely. I have been to NK, and I can say positively that the scientists will be monitored and accompanied at all times they are away from their hotels. They will also be isolated from the NK wider population. They will only interact with specially chosen minders who speak excellent English and have proven their loyalty to the state. And there will be security personnel with them at all times outside their hotels too.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Do you think that Western scientists collaborating together with the North Koreans could set as an example of political things to see in the future?

RK: Not really. I hope so, but North Korean[sic] has a tendency to pretend to open itself, and then to re-close after it gets what it wants. All sorts of interaction with North Korea gets hyped as ‘a new beginning’ or a ‘historic opening,’ only to come to naught. That does not mean it could not happen, just that I am skeptical. Instead, NK is likely to continue to interact when and where it has certain specific needs, as in this case. And that interaction will be tightly monitored. Fifteen years [ago], at the start of the Sunshine Policy by SK, there was hope that increased interaction would grow organically and slowly open up NK. That was the spirit behind the Kaesong industrial zone. But in fact, the North Koreans tightly controlled Kaesong to capture its gains and limit spillovers. I imagine the same will happen here.

Dr. Jim Gill

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Do natural hazards pay attention to international political differences?

Dr. Jim Gill: Of course not.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Is there a high risk and increased seismic activity in relation to Mount Paektu?

JG: Not currently. There was unrest at the volcano during 2002–05 but it has returned to normalcy.

Wikinews waves Left.pngWNWikinews waves Right.png Would an eruption of Mount Paektu have consequences for multiple countries?

JG: Yes. The most likely widespread consequence will be an interuption of air traffic between North Asia and North America and Europe. More locally, the tourist industry on the Chinese side of the border will be very impacted. Most ash fall will be in the DPRK.
For perspective, there was an extremely large eruption of the volcano at about 940 AD — one of the largest historical eruptions anywhere on Earth. It is uncertain how often it has erupted since, and how large the eruptions were, but nothing has been big enough to cause serious problems scores of kilometers away. So yes there is risk — it is large mountain with a long history of eruptions — but nothing indicates a high level of concern now.



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Coastal Assassins get wins at roller derby event on Australia\’s Sunshine Coast

Coastal Assassins get wins at roller derby event on Australia’s Sunshine Coast

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Sunday, September 8, 2013

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Caloundra, Queensland — Wikinews attended a roller derby event at the Caloundra Indoor Stadium on Australia’s Sunshine Coast yesterday. The event, entitled Springtime Riot, featured the hosting association — the Coastal Assassins Roller Derby (CARD) — fielding two teams, the Rum City Derby Dolls and the Gold Coast Sea Bombers.

September 7, 2013
CARD Ace Invaders 277
Rum City Derby Dolls 183
Caloundra, Queensland
Australia
September 7, 2013
CARD Ace Invaders 180
Goald Coast Sea Bombers 153
Caloundra, Queensland
Australia

Jammer vs blockers.JPG An Ace Invaders jammer works her way through opposing blockers
Image: Patrick Gillett.

Rum City jammer.JPG Rum City jammer
Image: Patrick Gillett.

The Ace Invaders (white) defeated the Derby Dolls 277 to 183.

Roller Derby Jam.JPG Gold Coast Roller Derby (blue) players identify the opposing jammer
Image: Patrick Gillett.
GC Jammer.JPGGold Coast roller derby jammer
Image: Patrick Gillett.
Gold Coast Sea Bombers.JPG Gold Coast Sea Bombers after their 180-153 loss



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This text comes from Wikinews. Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 licence. For a complete list of contributors for this article, visit the corresponding history entry on Wikinews.

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